Garren's blog

28th May: shocks away!

28^th May 

The most expensive dental treatment I have ever known, and the cheapest. The weakest reason ever given for an institutional decision, and one of the most honest, yet shocking. 

Brief blog. Today’s dental treatment: 130yen. That is about one pound. Not bad for 90 minutes in discomfort, being worked on by highly competent people with complex equipment. Next week’s dental work: 168,000yen. That is just over 1300 pounds. Two crowns made of special ceramic material, formed as cast objects in a lab in Hokkaido accounts for the cost. My gast was well and truly flabbered by that, but with little knowledge, less dental vocabulary, and exposed nerves what is a man to do?

 Nikon has cancelled an exhibition it had planned at its swish Tokyo gallery. No big deal. The exhibition was of photographs of sexual slavery. Get the idea? A large part dealt with the issue of Korean and other women forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army, and its paid representatives and middle-men, and wheeler dealers, and pimps. Yes, the Japanese government has shouting loudly for decades that even though bad things happened there was no imperial policy on this, so therefore we aren’t responsible. Hmmm. Like the holocaust many respond, only a little unfairly.

But responsibility isn’t the issue. The issue is that the event was cancelled by Nikon due to ‘various reasons’ related to complaints received by telephone. Yes, that is it. No more. Imagine if all exhibitions were dealt with on that basis. I phone up the Ueno Museum of Modern Art and shout ‘I hate impressionists!’, and the curators pack up the Monets, Manets and all, and send them back to Paris. Would that work with G8 summits as well? One can only hope so. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120528x3.html

 In completely unrelated news, a Japanese man and two Thai women were arrested for selling a 24 year old Thai woman into sexual slavery in Japan today. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120528_19.html

And the shocking honesty? Well, a degree of honesty at least was given by former PM Kan Naoto in his evidence to the ongoing Diet panel into the events of 3.11 said that the triple crisis and the worsening situation in the Dai-ichi nuclear plant meant that “We could hardly get information. We couldn't do anything.” That helps explain some seemingly odd behavior from the cabinet, but not about the main issue that Diet members were looking at: whether Kan’s flight to the plant on 12^th March was an example of micro-management hindrance, or simply an attempt to help and learn. He, naturally said the latter, and such was the state of TEPCO that this was quite understandable. However, there is another factor that the media and politicians are ignoring at the moment, and that is the media and political pressure put upon Kan on 11^th and 12^th March to show he was the leader, that the situation was being brought under control, and that a visit to the affected area was expected of the PM. Shocking that the ex-PM might tell the truth (even if it serves his interests), and shocking that the situation was just as chaotic as it seemed to be. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120528x1.html Kan has now come out openly as a ‘nuclear zero’ advocate, while Industry Minister Edano is balancing the committee on future energy policy by considering both the DPJ wish to go non-nuclear with the energy hunger of Japanese consumers and business.

Also interesting was the news that former Cabinet Secretary Edano alleges that TEPCO wanted to evacuate their staff as the situation was so dangerous, which Kan said prompted his conversation with TEPCO boss Shimizu. As others remember it the call was Kan yelling ‘do your bloody job’. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120528a1.html

In less well-covered news, an Osaka butcher was arrested for selling Fukushima radiation contaminated beef as coming from other parts of Japan, and a 62 year old tsunami survivor and radiation evacuee seems to have committed suicide in his old business property in Namie Town which was forced to close due to the Dai-ichi crisis. As it was unlikely ever to re-open he said he wanted to end his life. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120528_30.html That this was the case was shocking, but that it received so little news coverage is even more shocking and saddening.

25th May: Confused? You will be!

25^th May 

Some rather odd news stories have cropped up this week. In fact, news stories that are difficult to make head or tail of, unlike the news of Korea taking offence at Japan, or Spain being insulted by Britain. Those are down to silly nationalists having a sulk, pout, and tantrum. But there are real news stories out there that even the professionals covering them are struggling with.

First exhibit is the case of a famous Japanese poisoning incident, when ‘grape alcohol’, not wine but some form of grape-based liquor, was consumed by many people who became ill, among them five ladies who then went into convulsions and died. A man was tried for having put agricultural chemicals into the drink, and found guilty after confessing, and he was sentenced to death. Trouble is, the incident was in 1961, the man is still on death row, and he’s 86. That is quite extraordinary in itself, but the more bizarre twists are that his lawyers have continued to appeal the rulings on the case, and the most recent of them was delivered today. Odd. But not quite as odd as the ruling itself, and the previous rulings since 1964. The defendant, Okunishi made a confession to police (naturally unrecorded) which he then immediately withdrew as false, and was acquitted by the Tsu District Court in 1964 due to insufficient evidence, but the Nagoya High Court overturned the ruling and gave him the death sentence in 1969, confirmed by the Supreme Court in 1972. There were seven retrial demands, eventually leading to the case being reopened in 2005, only to be closed again on appeal by prosecutors. The Supreme Court sent the case back to the high court in 2010 on the basis of reexamination of the fatal chemicals. However, today’s ruling by the Nagoya High Court upheld the original retracted confession, and on the basis that the defence had failed to prove the claimed pesticide wasn’t actually used. He had failed to categorically prove his own innocence, which means he could be hanged any day, as on any day over the past 51 years.

This case raises so many issues the TV news and print media don’t really know which way to turn or which angle to take. The most obvious is, “if he’d been hanged none of this fuss would be necessary”, which is both true and extremely worrying. The time required for legal cases in Japan to be addressed is an ongoing and major concern, with cases such as the Minamata poisoning case having been resolved only last year, when most victims had already died, and the issue of fair compensation for victims of the atomic bombings. The inability of defendants to have recourse to recordings of interrogations to this day has been previously raised as a problem for defence lawyers, but equally this can be a prosecution headache if doubts are raised as to the provenance of those confessions. Police procedures, judicial procedures, the death penalty, and victim justice: none come out of this business clean and satisfied. The media are simply confused. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120525x1.html

In other confusing news, the UN has confirmed that six Daiichi plant workers who have died since 3.11 did not die as a result of radiation exposure. This is good news, but it it is also an indicator of the lack of trust in TEPCO, the government, and pretty much any other domestic body related to the crisis that the UN had to confirm this information. It also fails to answer many outstanding questions related to how much radiation was released, what is the risk of radiation to Japan and those outside of Japan, and what the future risks may be through fisheries and agriculture, as well as other forms of land use? CNN asked such questions, and received an answer that it probably didn’t wish (as it didn’t make for a news splash) that the risk is very small for most people, so small as to be almost insignificant. However, this came with the caveat that since the sample of people exposed to small increases in radiation will be in the millions, possibly even tens of millions, some increase in radiation-related illnesses could be expected. The government has played down such fears, stating that the UN WHO report was based upon worst case scenarios, such as that no evacuation, food precaution, and other measures were taken. When considering how little information and help people were actually given, such as the ignorance surrounding SPEEDI radiation-spread data, and the way that Namie Town people were evacuated to Iitate Village, despite being the most dangerous location under the radiation plume, then worst case scenarios might well be the most accurate. WHO anticipates some potential thyroid damage to small children, but again that this will probably be very limited indeed, which might be of comfort to the government but not much to local families.

One group that is doing interesting work to assess possible risks is Safecast, which is producing maps and other aids across the world based upon professionals and volunteers doing their best with limited equipment, and in Japan is being supported by a number of people at Keio University. This means that they are establishing static and mobile radiation monitoring of sites quite apart from official figures. Thus far their figures have not found large discrepancies with official figures, but do highlight some slight differences that are interesting (to people like me with an expanding tea-towel collection and no girlfriend), such as the slightly higher radiation levels of Kamakura (measured close to the sea) compared to neighbouring Fujisawa (where the monitoring station is at the Keio SFC campus, almost 10km from the sea (and my house). The levels are low, and quite safe. In fact, lower than the levels of Hong Kong, and New York at normal times. However, the cumulative effects of the fallout are not known, and this is not a one-time survey, but a shifting phenomenon, changed and moved by tide, wind, and whatever is happening in Fukushima. Just thank God for concerned volunteers.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?hpt=wo_t3

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120525a2.html

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120524004630.htm

http://blog.safecast.org/about/

And on the subject of Daiichi, there is TEPCO and their profits. The news story that struck like a hammer, but quickly died away was that TEPCO has, for years, made more than 90% of its profits from domestic consumers, despite consuming only about 40% of TEPCO’s power. So, this means that we have been subsidizing the other users, such as pachinko parlours, manufacturers, and train companies, and yet the story was rapidly smothered by the news that TEPCO will be effectively nationalised in July this year. That is, the company that sucks cash from ordinary consumers will be taken over by a government desperate to suck cash out of consumers through increased taxation. Hmm. Surely I’m not the only one that sees a pattern developing here.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120523005516.htm

And other worrying patterns involve human skin. Yes, Osaka Mayor Hashimoto, the young pretender to Tokyo Gov. Ishihara’s tin crown of maverick-in-chief in Japanese politics, is tilting at more windmills today, but he may have overstepped the mark and landed a bruise upon himself. He began a campaign a week ago against Osaka city workers having tattoos, and said that all workers would be surveyed and asked if they had ink on their skin, and if so they could be dismissed, possibly even for failing to respond to such a survey, which many have done. This has been toned down slightly to the point of tattoos in public view being possible reasons for rejecting promotion, but it seems that Hashi has the bit between his teeth, and seems determined to have a major showdown with the unions. This piece of seeming lunacy has roots in what cultural significance tattoos have had in Japan over the centuries, having been used as badges of honour by yakuza gangsters and associated hoodlums over the years, as they have in other countries. In Japan, however, many bath houses, swimming pools, and other establishments have long had bans upon admitting those with tattoos, and Osaka once apparently had many rubbish collectors, bin-men, with tattoos and yakuza connections. Despite his youth, Hashi doesn’t seem to realize that fashions and culture have moved on and tattoos can have various meanings today. In Britain they could indicate anything from extreme right-wing hate-feelings through to extreme wealth and lack of taste (among premier league footballers in particular). It seems that Hashi wants a fight, and thought this would be a quick, small victory, that would boost his popular support and help launch a long and glorious political career. Just one word of warning Hashi: Malvinas! http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120525a4.html

Oh, and since there have been many stories about the problems with the US F-35 fighter in the news, here is a nice distraction. The US Marine Corps’ MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor helicopter, once cancelled, once reprieved, very expensive, prone to accidents, long delayed, highly controversial: one fell out of the sky last month, and the US is worried but investigating. The citizens of Okinawa are worried too, as it has been flying above them, and is due to do an awful lot more flying over them since the US and Japan haven’t worked out where else they should fly. We have nothing to fear but the sky falling on our heads. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120524004187.htm

And something else in the sky was the eclipse on Monday 21^st May. It was viewed over a wide range of Japan, form Kyushu to lower Tohoku, and despite the cloud and rain, it was visible from the beach in Fujisawa, accompanied by a loud oohh and ahh from the crowd that made it all the more special. The next one here will be in 300 years, and some of us might have slowed up a bit by then, but in 10 years the same can be seen in Hokkaido.

20th May: No more no-news weeks

20^th May 

In contrast with last week, this week has been chock-full of news. There is an eclipse due tomorrow, a default or rescue due any day now, a G8, a NATO summit, a samurai incident, and I had a birthday. Yes, it has all been happening. I got one card and the best present was a tea towel. I think that signifies that a certain point in life has been reached. Not a problem, but a certain point in life, such as when you realize the cost of Christmas has outstripped the receipts in gifts and in kind.

The eclipse is due tomorrow morning, 21^st May, at c.7:30am, and naturally the weather forecast is for thick cloud, masking this most momentous event. Which is pretty much a description of the G8 at Camp David, where a huge array of troublesome issues was lightly touched upon without the sense that any of them were really tackled or examined to the degree that might provide hope for resolution. Syria boils on, Sudan bubbles away, Iran was addressed with more of the same of the past five years, and everyone avoided mentioning human rights in China just a day before blind activist Chen Guangcheng was able to leave China for the US. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18135039 Afghanistan will presumably be addressed more by NATO than the G8, but there isn’t any particular sense of resolving that problem, or even of the major western powers agreeing what the problems are that they face. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18135796

And the big issue of the summit, naturally, was that of the Euro. Which is odd, really, as there is nothing wrong with the Euro. It is fine, and handy, and rather neat in many ways. The problem is with some of the people who use the Euro, and especially the legacy issues from those statesmen who launched the single currency project more than a decade ago with the political vision of unity in mind rather than the actual economic and fiscal requirements and results of that vision. Kohl, Chirac, Silvio and the others were all so deeply chummy and happy to be together that they forgot one tiny detail: if you create a vast fiscal empire on rotten foundations, then one day it will probably collapse. Der Spiegel has run a series of articles on the period 1994-1998 when former Chancellor Helmut Kohl was the key man in the EU for pushing ahead with currency union. Documents reveal that the German government, and the EU commission, were painfully aware that Italy was unfit for membership by the fiscal criteria set down, as were Belgium and later Greece as well. Italy’s debt ‘reduced’ to 120% by 1997, at a rate of 1% per year from 1994, but suddenly within a year it was declared as having met the minimum criterion of 60% public debt. Everyone knew the figures were a fraud, a massive fiscal conspiracy to achieve political goals, but the ends justified the means, and hence we are in the position today whereby supporting Greece (and Spain, Italy, Belgium, Ireland etc.) could possibly bring down the Euro-zone, while allowing a Greek default could, well, bring down the Euro-zone. That is called lose-lose by the way. Well done Helmut. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-struggles-can-be-traced-to-origins-of-common-currency-a-831842.html

However, there is hope, for there is one fearless leader in the EU who is willing to stand up and tell it like it really is. Yes ‘Big Dave’ Cameron knows what he is talking about, and has told the Euro nations that they need to get a grip, and sort out the mess, and he even got Pres. Obama to agree with him and tell Angela Merkel as much. Yes, he knows what he is talking about, the man who is trying to keep the UK out of all EU schemes, including the Euro, and who has run his country so diligently that it has slipped into recession worse than most EU nations and is relying upon Euro-zone growth to save his bacon by the time of the next election. Oh yes, he knows. But since his government seemed on the verge of falling apart under the weight of its own incompetence bashing the EU (foreigners, don’t you know), and even the vapid opposition seemed mildly appealing to the British public, then telling everyone that the real problem is due to Euro-dithering in Brussels and Berlin will go down very well with the Daily Mail and the particular breed of bulldog who subscribes to that august journal.

In Japan, things are a tad more sedate. Or rather, were sedate, as they took several bad turns. There was an appalling fire at a hotel in Hiroshima, which had failed all fire safety inspections since the late 1980s, but which was free to continue operating as neither the council nor fire service had the automatic right to close it down, and nobody wanted the fuss of a legal case. Result: seven dead. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120513002373.htm

Last week the report was that beer sales were down, but this week cigarette sales are up over 40% on this time last year. The reason? Last year there was a price hike in April, and then the 3.11 disasters disrupted shipments. Hmm, one might say double edged sword, but that might be taken as a joke in rather poor taste. Also, the hotel fire was suspected of being caused by a cigarette. But it could have been faulty wiring (a message oddly not sponsored by Japan Tobacco).

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120519003535.htm

Odd news relates to Korea. Japan and Korea have rarely had wonderful relations, close proximity, a fairly terrible legacy of imperial rule, and Japan’s ostrich-like approach to its own history combined with Korean compulsive-obsessive nationalist behavior is unlikely to produce a mellow condition. The oddity this week has been that Korea was also involved in the Japan-China bird spat, as reported last week, as the Koreans also received an Ibis from China, but only wanted a signing ceremony with that country, not with Japan. Then Japan launched the H2A rocket (note to North Korea, not a ballistic missile, as Japan is nice, really), with four satellites, one of which was Korean, and it was successful, so all smiles there. But then the Korean defence minister decided to ‘delay’ his visit to Japan to sign security agreements due to ‘historical troubles’ with Japan, which is code for ‘Jesus, these guys are such idiots, why can’t they just either shut up or else apologise for what they did?’ But the problem is that the Japanese side said nothing controversial, and did nothing (which is in itself a problem, as the MoD in Japan, under Defense Minister Tanaka, has become inert). The trouble was at home, among the more rabidly anti-Japanese politicians who consider a security agreement with Japan designed to benefit Korea as being against their national interests. Hmmm. Yes. One’s allies can be truly baffling at times.  http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120518a7.html　

 One shocking piece of news was a man in his 60s, disgruntled with a real estate office, went into the branch in Utsunomiya City, Tochigi and cut off the arm of the boss with a samurai sword before injuring two other employees. It seems he was unhappy with their service, which many could empathise with, although not to the extent of re-enacting a period drama or a Tarantino movie. http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120519p2a00m0na003000c.html

In nicer news, the Japanese Emperor and Empress visited London for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations. Despite the Emperor’s hospitalization this year he seemed in fine form, and the event went off very well, as royals gathered from around the world. Well, almost all over the world, as the Spanish Queen, related to both Elizabeth and Philip, stayed away due to protests by Spanish nationalist politicians who wish for Gibraltar to be Spanish and were angered by news that Will and Kate will visit there. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the politicians are only upholding the fine tradition begun by General Franco in the 1960s. It seems that Spain wishes to have the rock against the will of approximately 98% of its inhabitants, while at the same time denying independence to the Basque and Catalonia regions that have majorities desiring nation-statehood. Nobody talked about that at the G8 either.

One result from the G8 was that PM Noda got a birthday cake from Pres. Obama for his 55^th on Sunday. Bet he didn’t get a Monopoly tea towel from his mother though. Weep with envy Yoshihiko. Weep with envy. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120519003536.htm

15th May: Euro, Bubbles, Birds, and Bust

15th May

There is surprisingly little news in Japan. Greece is on the edge of default and being shown the exit door from the Euro (which many suspect is a trapdoor), with most of the world either worrying whether this is the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning, of the global financial meltdown that seeemed to begin in 2008, while many others (this blog included) are sitting watching intently, like a slow-motion multiple vehicle pile-up, wondering just what a sovereign default looks like. Is it a multiheaded monster from the future, or a pitiful wraith from the past, complete with paper currency in wheelbarrows and bartering goods on street corners? Nobody knows. France and Germany are set to have crisis talks between a woman who thinks either scenario of default might be a real possibility, and possibly both together, while a man sees the dangers as exagerated and the greater danger being the fear of danger that austerity and talk of austerity has bred. Either way, Europe is full of news, and even in the damp island off the coast, the culture secretary has even more trouble, apart from that dubious title he wears like a cheap suit. He was supposed to regulate things, like news and TV groups, but actually took advice from the people who owned and ran them, and then the rotters turned out to be not very nice people that he probably shouldn't have trusted, let alone asked advice of, and now he is sad. His boss, 'Big Dave' is also sad as he is about the third most popular person in his party, and even the party isn't very popular, and he doesn't know whether he should try hard to make his coalition with 'Little Nicky' work, or just be nasty, attack foreigners, and wave a flag to drum up support, even though that will send wee Nicky into a hissy fit. Apparently, there is even some news off the extreme west coast of Britain, where a man in a white building announced that he thinks people should marry whomsoever they like without asking the permission of politicians. Such frivolous madness can only have been brought about by Islamic Marxist aliens, or common sense, but no-one seems to know which, neither being in abundance in that particular part of the English speaking world. And yet, this is seemingly (or rather unseemly) news. Not news as we would know it, but news.

But in Japan there is none of that. No. A no news few days. PM Noda is slightly less popular than a month ago, according to polls. China isn't being nice to Japan, due to Japan not forbidding a convention of a minority Chinese group (Uighurs) in Japan, and Hu Jintao wouldn't meet one-to-one with Noda because he was sulking. He meet with Lee of Korea instead, and showed just how much he could pout at Noda by contrasting this by smiling at Lee. He was also unhappy at a piece of bird protocol that went wrong (no, not an invention of this blog!). It seems that the Japanese-Chinese cooperation to breed crested ibis birds which has been quite successful hasn't worked politically, when Noda forgot to say thank you with an equivalent present to Hu. He didn't even send flowers or buy a card. Although there isn't really a Hallmark card for 'Loved the bird, thanks, but could you stop claiming our islands?' No news there.

NO news also that Caesium levels in Tokyo Bay are elevated, although that might be news to the government, who don't seem to be monitoring them, rather leaving it up to academics, who assure us that both the elevated levels are not unsafe, but that we haven't reached the peak yet, as the caesium is leeching from soil in Chiba and elsewhere in the Kanto area into the rivers and thence Tokyo Bay. Not really news is it.

Nor is the anniversary in Okinawa. 40 years ago the islands in the Okinawa group reverted to Japanese from US control. Nice, but the unresolved base-related issues continue, and despite claims since the 1990s of having found solutions to the most contentious issues they drag on, and on. Relocations, alterations, strict rules and regulations, and all manner of obfustications have resulted in an almost complete loss of faith in either national government among the locals on the islands. Their position hasn't really changed since 1972. No news there, sadly. Jon Mitchell's long article is one of the better ones at this time: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/fl20120513x1.html

There isn't even any news on the power situation here. There is a shortfall, expected to lead to voluntary cuts in consumption this summer, or else rolling schuled black-outs in western Japan, especially around Kansai. This is just the same as last year, except that for east Japan then read west Japan now, although the weather helped prevent the worst case scenario of blackouts, based upon power consumption in 2010 when Japan had probably its hottest summer on record, which I can verify: I was finishing off my PhD thesis in the middle of it. But that is a tired old story, not news. In fact, just about the only news that can be found in Japan is the new absence of something, rather than the emergence of something new. Beer and beer-like sales unexpectedly plummeted in April 2012 , and we don't know why. Maybe people are less needing drink, or less inclined towards golden, soapy suds, or else something else we don't understand yet or possibly never will. But that is news. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nb20120515a6.html That really isn't much to run with, but even a lame dog will chase a slender bone when hungry. And  a bursting beer-market bubble is the best news going pop anywhere in Japan. Oh to live in interesting times.

 

7th May: Reality, Wind, and Images

7^th May 

The weekend saw Japan go ‘non-nuclear’ which may warm the heart of greens and environmentalists and anti-nuclear people all over the world. The response in Japan is much more muted, however, for the risks of nuclear power have been reduced, if at all, by only the slenderest of margins, while the costs will probably increase. We are paying for the infrastructure, while gaining no power, and thus have to pay twice: once to maintain the nuclear power plants safely, improve the resilience of those plants to natural disasters, then prove that increased resilience (the ‘stress tests’ over which there have been so many disputed words), and bring the plants back on-line, and then once more we have to pay for the substitute energy, which is mainly Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and oil. This also leaves Japan with a very poor performance on its carbon emissions, and with greatly increased pollution, which has been previously shown in this blog to lead to increased illness and deaths. So, despite ‘non-nuclear’ having a fine, safe, and clean image, the reality for Japan at the moment is rather different.

If the situation in Japan is very far from ideal, there is also the relief that it lacks the drama of nuclear power in other places. Italy has seen an attempted assassination on the head of the nuclear power concern, who was shot by motorcycle gunmen while walking with his son, while in France a scientist on the Cern particle ‘big bang’ project has been imprisoned for terrorist conspiracy. The greatest news out of Japan is that the next TEPCO chairman will be a company insider who had previously been a managing director. Less Hollywood, but also easier on the nerves. However, a news story from the US highlights the less covered reality, and the rather oddly ignored threat posed still by the Dai-ichi reactor in Fukushima, or rather the ridiculous situation in which spent nuclear fuel rods have been stored, and continue to be treated (ie. left open to the elements, in hope that nothing else goes very wrong). The overblown phrase ‘ticking time bomb’, and the notion that the rods will suddenly burst into flames, are a bit silly, but they are slight exaggerations of a very real, and unpleasant truth that most media seems to be avoiding. Not nice news. Not nice images. Better not to think about them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17982038 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17956202

http://www.alternet.org/story/155283/the_worst_yet_to_come_why_nuclear_experts_are_calling_fukushima_a_ticking_time-bomb?akid=8723.254702.FHAV2J&rd=1&t=8

 

And as far as nice images with somewhat different realities go, the elections in Greece and France have produced a popular revolt against money-politics, cronyism and corruption. Which is nice. Except that the respective people elected in each country will have monumental tasks in attempting to satiate the demands of those that placed them in power, and their elevation to office resulted in the largest drop of 2012 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (oddly a pattern that has been repeated over the past few years, due to the rise in the yen), as well as an 8% drop in Athens, and 2% on the German DAX. French President Hollande has said that he will renegotiate the austerity measures package agreed between Sarkozy and Merkel, and then pretty much forced on everyone else, but the German Chancellor will be his biggest obstacle (and that is not intended as a joke at her expense). However, the situation in Greece is far from clear, as although the two (former) main parties, Pasok and New Democracy, were ‘defeated’ it is not clear who the real winners are, if indeed there are any. Syriza, a loose, radical-left group had about 17% of votes, and extreme nationalists, Golden Dawn, had about 7%. So, the old regime has been discarded, but no new regime has clearly emerged as yet. But the message from the north is clear: stick with the EU bailout, or face the consequences. It has a heavy German accent, and is not to be taken lightly.

 

The end of Golden Week was marked by the tragedy of natural and human drama, as a whirlwind, twister, tornado ripped through several small communities north east of Tokyo. One died and 50 were injured as roofs were ripped off, windows shattered, cars tumbled over, and whole houses were lifted and carried away, in scenes which in cinematic terms combined The Wizard of Oz with Welcome to Sarajevo. The aftermath was more like a war zone or terrorist-attack site than a normal natural disaster area, with buildings having been peppered by high-velocity ‘shrapnel’ as bricks, tiles, pebbles, even things as innocuous as plastic slippers, books, and flower pots became deadly projectiles in an area 500meters wide and 15km long in Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, with similar scenes in Moka and Mashiko towns, Tochigi.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120506_20.html

 

NHK News 9 had another interesting feature this evening, on someone most young Japanese and anyone outside of Japan will never have heard of, but who greatly influenced modern Japan: Doko Toshio. Doko was an engineer, and well-respected businessman who worked as president or chairman for IHI, Toshiba, and Keidanren (the Federation of Japanese Economic Organisations: an uber chamber of commerce) in the 1960s and 1970s. He was chosen as chairman of the second administrative reform committee launched by PM Suzuki Zenko, but proved himself to be far more forceful and imaginative than Suzuki, or his LDP cohorts had imagined, demanding that the committee not just be listened to, but their recommendations be regarded as a blueprint for future policy. Largely, it was, with a swath of privatizations in the 1980s, such as of the Japan National Railways, cutting away at the bloated state payroll, and the subsequent politicking that this engendered, particularly in the LDP (and the Japan Communist Party, through its union connections with railway workers). In stark contrast to the similar rail privatization in the UK, that in Japan worked well, and led to generally improved services and reduced costs, as well as far fewer strikes. The NHK report was contrasting the current Noda cabinet’s efforts at administrative reform, with Doko’s work. Doko stated clearly as a primary condition that reform must be undertaken without tax increases, for the aim was to reduce the scale of the state, and its spending. The contrast today is that the departure point, the a priori assumption of the Noda cabinet, is that a sales tax hike (probably from 5% to 10%) is required, and everything else will follow-on from there. Also, although the current reform committee chairman is one of the ablest men of the DPJ, Okada Katsuya, the former Foreign Minister, as a politician, party member, and cabinet member his status, and everything produced by the committee will be treated in partisan terms, even though many neutral businesspeople and academics have been co-opted. The contrast of an 84 year old apolitical professional displaying insight and leadership, and taking the brunt of terrible criticism for the sake of his country’s future with the present day is quite stark. Let us hope that others can rise to present challenges, regardless of their age, and see realities and possible futures for what they are and could be, rather than what they hope will prove popular.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/08/05/obituaries/toshiwo-doko-is-dead-industry-chief-was-91.html  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20120507/k10014946681000.html

4th May: Between Constitution, Children, and Greenery

4^th May 

Golden Week, and while yesterday was Constitution Day, and today Green Day (no jokes, please), tomorrow will be Children’s Day, with lots of things for kids to do, events, and a plethora of Koi nobori. The latter involves a pole, with attached lines, and on the lines are streamers or wind socks decorated as colourful Koi, or carp, swimming upstream, as a symbol of the strength of youth. These range from a wee pole on an apartment veranda, to a massive array, 20 meters high and 50 meters across over a farmer's field to show off to his neighbours that he has a fine and strong son or two (even if he sits all day looking at his phone and has no interest in digging daikon in the future). This was originally boys day, and 3^rd March girls day (celebrated with dolls), but since only the boys day was a national holiday it was revised, possibly in light of having celebrated the Constitution a couple of days before, which contains Article 14. This is not often remembered, although it should be, but Article Nine overshadows them all, with its rather noble statement that Japan shall forever forego the right of belligerence, that is the nation agreed to give up the legal right to fight wars. If only a few more would do likewise. But Article 14 is also interesting: “All of the people are equal under the law and there shall be no discrimination in political, economic or social relations because of race, creed, sex, social status or family origin. Peers and peerage shall not be recognized. No privilege shall accompany any award of honor, decoration or any distinction, nor shall any such award be valid beyond the lifetime of the individual who now holds or hereafter may receive it.” http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html

The lack of discrimination is a nice one, coming as it does at a time when students are looking for jobs rather than actually studying, which is the main pre-occupation in the final year of university life. Hence Japanese students take four years to graduate compared to three in England without learning or achieving any more. Companies clearly state how many people shall be hired each year, in each company section (sales, admin etc.), and often with 10:1 gender ratios clearly stated.

Anyone familiar with the details of Article Nine will know that the spirit of the constitution is of more importance than the letter, as although, “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”, is a spirit most can respect, what comes next is a bit, well, troublesome. “In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.” The last bit is fine. No-one really wants to invade China (although, Ishihara...hmmm) or join the US in its next foreign adventure. But the “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained” bit has one or two slightly unnerving consequences. The first is that the position of the JSDF, the de facto military of Japan with (possibly) the fourth or fifth largest defence budget in the world, is rather...fuzzy? At least, that has been the case since 1954, when they were founded in their present form, although naval forces continued after 1945 for minesweeping and some transport and ordnance disposal duties, and were the core that was built up and served under US command in Korea, providing the main minesweeping force for the Inchon landings, which were also made possible by the use of Japanese-manned landing ships. MS14, a Japanese minesweeper, was sunk off North Korea in late 1950, and one sailor killed, and the entire Japanese force was ordered to set sail before the Japanese government, under PM Yoshida, had given its approval, which it rapidly did, nor was any comment sought upon Japanese armed forces being deployed to a war zone, the minesweepers having light machine guns fitted. The constitution came into force in 1947, and was drafted by US officials, and only slightly revised by Japanese politicians and officials, although the Japanese version is the only one with force in law, despite the original having been in English. In the Japanese version ‘forces’ is more specifically translated as ‘gun’, or military, thus providing the official explanation that the JSDF, Japan Self-Defense Forces, are not a military. They have no military law or courts, and personnel are designated as ‘special civil servants’. But these special civil servants have more tanks than the British or French armies, more naval ships than either European country’s navy, and a large and advanced air force.

Each year rallies are held to defend or revise the constitution, and the main bones of contention revolve around Article Nine. Less attention is paid to the legal problem, however, than to the details of each sentence. This is odd, as by most interpretations outside of Japanese government circles the JSDF is an unconstitutional force, even when those people recognising such a position and status look favourably upon the Forces, and wish to see them improved and their status made more tenable. Those demanding the defence of Article Nine fall into two camps: the minority camp (maybe 10% of popular opinion at the most) demands the JSDF be disbanded, while the majority camp (usually considered to be 50-60% of opinion) seek that the JSDF is maintained at roughly present levels, but that its military power is not further enhanced, that its duties are not greatly enlarged, and that the government respect the spirit of Article Nine by respecting peace and rejecting war even while it is in breach of the letter of the basic law. The other minority camps consist of those who wish to erase the ‘foreign’ constitution and either return to the Meiji Constitution (all gowns, frocks, Barons and Dukes, and respect for a God-Emperor), or construct a new, native constitution, or those who see themselves as the ‘middle way’ (but are usually rejected as right-wingers by the constitution defenders) who want to keep the 1947 document, but revise it to suit present realities and challenges. The constitution is the longest standing unrevised national constitution still in force.

Each group has made its case over the last couple of days, and with little effect other than to convince each group that was already convinced of the justness of its cause. The question remains though, of what value has a document that is not being observed to the letter of its provisions? It obviously retains value, for most Japanese wish to retain it in either original or only slightly modified form, and yet most Japanese also wish to retain the JSDF in its present form (or close to it), and hence the legal and moral contradiction. If the constitution were changed to reflect present realities, China, Korea, and others would be alarmed, as would many Japanese, so that the move to reinforce legal strength would result in a weakening of the document’s moral strength.

It seems likely that revision will occur at some point, but being Japan it is likely to come about after some crisis has overcome the inertia derived from such rigidly entrenched opinions resisting change. This resistance is not only from a liberal public, but is also strong within most political parties and many other institutions, as some see the value of being able to portray the nation as a ‘peace country’ in contrast to many others that go unnamed. This has been seen in Japanese NGO and companies being seen as neutral or friendly in lands where the US and its rather more belligerent allies are viewed as unwelcome aliens, such as Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and Khmer Rouge and later pro-Vietnam controlled Cambodia. It seems that Japan wishes to be a liberal, global mercantile power, while also having allusions to great power status, in (unequal) alliance with the greatest power of all. The inequality is due to the provisions of the alliance requiring the US to come to the aid of Japan in case of attack, while Japan is under no such obligation. However, while this is often seen as a sign of the US being used by allies, or carrying an unfair burden for ‘the west’, it is also an alliance that provides advantages and benefits for the US, which others have derided as equating to Japan having the status of a vassal state. Perhaps such extreme views are a sign that the alliance is ‘about right’, or maybe all wrong, but as with the status of the JSDF few Japanese wish to alter things, particularly after the tremendous help after 3:11, and, it must be noted, with Obama as President. This blog has no US, or other, political affiliation, but the simple truth is that most Japanese were alarmed by and derisive of George W Bush, and Obama has been praised for his calm statesmanship, his intelligence, and his moral and social standards. For once, most Japanese wish the US president could be one of their leaders. It seems unlikely that Mitt Romney would cast the same spell.

And on the subject of the US alliance, the US side has confirmed Japan’s order for F-35 fighters for the ASDF. Not in service, not in production, and running late with technical hitches, life isn’t easy for Lockheed Martin right now. The ASDF wanted four aircraft by 2016 at the latest, but this has now slipped to 2017 at the earliest, with full production now planned to start in 2019. Japan has budgeted approximately $10 billion for 42 aircraft, leading to a unit cost of approximately $240 million, which they hope will include all training, spares and support. However, life might not be that easy. You can order a new BMW but everything, from rubber mats to air-con is an optional extra, and it seems the F-35 will be similar. The Japanese have said that if costs escalate they will simply buy less planes, but that might become untenable if costs escalate dramatically, and in-service dates slip. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120504x2.html They have even threatened to cancel, but that seems, politically, unlikely, although it could be a boost to attempts to cut costs. However, on this issue, as on many others, the Japanese carp may be swimming in a river too wide and a current too strong to make any headway.

 By the way. There will be a complete eclipse, complete with darkened skies and portents of doom, early on the morning of 21^st May, across a band of Japan, from Kagoshima and Osaka, through to Tokyo and southern Tohoku, and already we are being warned not to look at the sun without proper protection. Yet again, the Darwin effect. Let us hope the strongest koi can swim on, eyesight unimpaired. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120504f2.html

29th April: Golden Week in Washington

29th^th April 

(original entry was 30th April: missed a day, having worked Saturday in Tokyo, when the rest of Japan was glorying in lovely sunshine, and I emerged from interviewing students to just catch the fag-end of the sunset, hence, my date-line gyroscopes were thrown out of whack, and I misplaced a day. Or two?)

This weekend is the first phase of what has become known as the Golden Week holidays in Japan. There is no particular religious or cultural reason for the holidays, nor any particular connection with May Day tomorrow. Rather GW is seen as the epitome of Japanese post-modern society, when the country felt itself both able to take a week of holidays, and compelled to do so for the sake of suffering families, struggling hoteliers, and those lonely people who ride trains and simply love being squashed up against the doors and shot out of their carriages at the terminus like a dried pea from a catapult. GW is the time of transport madness, and sadly there are some accidents, such as a bus that crashed on the expressway in Gunma, north-west of Tokyo, with seven killed and a large number injured, after what seems like a sleeping-driver incident. This has come after a couple of weeks of such cases, including several killed in Kansai by a car crashing into people at a crossing, and the case of three licence-less youths driving around all night, and then crashing the next morning into a line of primary school kids, killing a 7 year old, and a pregnant mother. It seems that Japan has trouble keeping its eyes open at the wheel.

Which brings us to national government policy. PM Noda is expected in Washington for the first US-Japan premier meeting in four years today, and it seems that the US side is rather underwhelmed by the whole affair. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120429_h03.html The real action for the US is in China and Korea, as the former is attempting to dampen-down unrest in provincial party groups while maintaining a tight grip on non-party activists, such as Chen Guangchen, the blind activist who seems to have taken refuge in the US Embassy, Beijing, after having escaped house arrest. The problem is that authorities now seem to be harassing his family and friends, and all for the terrible crime of exposing an illegal local government campaign of forced sterilizations and abortions. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/28/chen-guangcheng-family-arrested-us-embassy  This follows the deepening sense of bewilderment in China about Bao Xi Lai, the ex-party chief of Chongqin province, his wife, who has been accused of murdering a British businessman, and his son, educated overseas in a variety of high-class, very expensive schools, despite his Dad’s professed desire to return to the authoritarian austerity of the days of Mao and the cultural revolution, that heady age when education was abandoned for a decade. The US-China relationship is involved with human rights and the future development of the Chinese state, as well as economic and strategic interests, and Hilary Clinton is due in Beijing next week. North Korea, meanwhile, occupies a great deal of attention, obviously, most particularly due to its missiles, although some German specialists have suggested that the missiles that were trundled out onto a parade immediately following the failed missile/satellite launch two weeks ago were actually fakes. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120429_04.html　The BBC have detailed photos with examples of how they looked rather suspicious, and this may well be true, but rather begs the question of those possibly somewhat over-enthusiastic and over-eager other ‘specialists’ who announced that these ‘new missiles’ were a worrying sign as they seemed capable of reaching the US. As this blog previously conjectured, they possibly meant by road. If the DPRK was unable to launch a fixed site ICBM it seems unlikely that they would be more successful with a mobile version. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17867174 Pyongyang has also threatened Seoul with ‘special actions’ in rather militant yet unspecified terms, which may range from anything between blustering bile right through to missile attacks and invasion. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/north-korea-threatens-special-actions

But this doesn’t really tell us very much about US-Japan relations. And there are good reasons for that. Most of the issues that affect the relationship are issues that defy negotiation between the countries, as they are primarily related to indecision, stasis, or controversial deadlock within Japanese society and politics. The US and Japan declared they had solved the issue of the Okinawa redeployment of US Marines outside of Japan, but this was only a small part of the overall issue that had been agreed. The issue of US bases in Okinawa and the rest of Japan, the Status of Forces Agreement, and so many other aspects of the military relationship remain to be clarified, mainly due to the battle between perceptions of national security interests and the rights of Okinawan locals. Even then, opinion in Okinawa is split, between those who would like to see changes in the US base locations and operations (and the myriad different variations therein), and those who seek a full US withdrawal. Japanese politics are similarly split, with only the minor left-wing parties seeking full withdrawal from the prefecture, while the others are divided between the ‘we know it isn’t fair but…’ and the ‘we are the bosses, so the bumpkin locals have to put up with it’ groups, that straddle most political parties. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17865198

Also, the issue of the Trans Pacific Partnership, or TPP, a hybrid free-trade area, and Japan’s possible inclusion is not a significant issue for bilateral negotiations compared to domestic negotiations. Many see it as an opportunity for Japanese business, particularly technology and service industries, while farmers and some others see it as likely to see the end of Japanese society as they/we know it. Both could be correct, but with Korean firms marching onwards and upwards, helped by a very cheap Won versus the Yen, and China’s economy ever outstripping Japan’s, many see TPP as Japan’s last chance to maintain some degree of parity. Too late in many ways, though, as Korea’s Samsung is now the world’s largest mobile phone seller, even out-mobiling Apple. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120428_16.html Many may not remember, but 10 years ago, Japanese companies and their Finnish competitors were the global market leaders. Oh how times rapidly change.

US-Japan relations are usually greatly energized by security issues, but even these seem unlikely to spark much interest. As noted last year, ASDF scrambles to intercept (mainly) Russia, Chinese, and Korean aircraft have climbed to the levels of the end of the Cold War. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120429_10.html　However, the US is more concerned with broader Chinese and DPRK issues, with a resurgent Russia, with resource management, and the issue of Iranian nuclear programmes, and Israel’s skittish responses. This is all in addition to the on-going saga of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the slow death of what has passed for ‘US strategy’ in that area. Japan is simply a slightly irritating concern, stable, safe, and not terribly useful in considering most other issues, which moves slowly, if at all, and perhaps isn't seen as a policy priority due to its seeming consistency. Japan is always announced to be a key ally, but ‘key’ in the sense of having few other options than to stick to the US as closely as it can, and Tokyo is finding that increasingly difficult. Two issues may be touched upon briefly by Noda: missile defence, and the F-35 aircraft. The former was seen as a vital consideration when the DPRK seemed likely to fire a missile over Japanese territory, but there was little faith in Japan’s ability to deal with such a contingency, its actual performance (in terms of intelligence and political response) towards the launch was poor, and deeper US coordination may be requested. The latter is a potential source of friction, as Japan has chosen the F-35 fighter as its next ASDF aircraft, but with a small and slow planned procurement, and with an in-service date requirement for the ASDF of 2014, which is likely to slip to 2016 or 2018 due to US defence budget cuts, and with an escalating unit cost for the same reason threatening the type's viability in Japanese service and the tightening defence budget. Many are questioning the wisdom of the choice, with the ASDF facing a potential 'air gap' between 2014 and 2020, but withdrawal from a planned procurement may incur the displeasure of the US far more than a decision to buy another aircraft would have created, particularly as the order had a very large 'political-over-technical' element following US aid following 3.11 and with ongoing regional tensions. It seems that PM Noda will have to be nimble on his toes during Golden Week. And stay awake.

23rd April: How to Win an Election? And Buy a Holiday Home?

 23^rd April 

Having discarded the St. George suit of armour and horse it is now a good time to report on the election results in France. And didn’t they do well. Odd result. Sarkozy came second, 1.3% behind the socialist Hollande, the first time the incumbent has been ‘defeated’ but it could have been far worse. The National Front got a whopping great 17.9%, less than 10% behind Sarkozy, with the Left Front on 11% and the Democratic Movement on 9%, with the Greens on about 3%. This means that everything is very far from clear for the run-off between Sakozy and Hollande. Surely the left leaning folks will go for Hollande, but that, even when judged liberally, would equate to just under 50%. The big question is how many of the National Front can be swayed to vote for Sarkozy, without Nich moving into semi-racist territory and alienating left and centre converts? He will require every ounce of cunning and guile he possesses, which is rather a lot. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17814785

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/francois-hollande-french-election

In other news, the issue of the Senkaku Islands (Japanese islands, between Okinawa and Taiwan, always controlled by Japan really, but claimed, like most other islands between Hawaii and Sri Lanka, by China) has taken a bizarre twist. Obviously, at the centre of this there are serious issues, but the bizarre element has been introduced by Tokyo Governor Ishihara. Yes, nothing to do with him. His job is to run the capital and make sure the folks there get what they need. But he thinks they need a set of semi-tropical islands, so has said that Tokyo should buy the Senkakus. Yes, me too. Like a box of rabid frogs! The island administration would like the owndership clarified, long the subject of absent landlords and other issues, and Maehara Seiji, DPJ bigwig and policy chief, has suggested that the state, rather than Tokyo, should be the only purchaser as national policy considerations are at the heart of the issue. Quite right, but that is the point for Ishihara. Not content with being a notoriously work-shy fop and stater of ridiculously prejudiced and ignorant truths regarding non-Japanese, ‘The Governor’ would like to be the new Prime Minister, at the head of a crack-pot populist party that would sweep away everything he despises (which is quite a lot actually, so best have a very large broom and dustpan handy). He sees the new generation of Osaka Mayor Hashimoto and others as his means, and he will be Japan’s Napoleon, or Jean Marie Le Pen. I wonder, I know he has a son, but does he have a daughter? He famously said the French didn’t know how to count, but I wonder if he has done the sums: Tokyo, plus Osaka, and possibly a fraction of Nagoya doesn’t quite equal Japan. Oh well, multiply by Senkaku and you’ll get the root of all trouble no doubt. One can only wish him hell. Sorry, well.  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120419_26.html　

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120419x2.html　

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120419a4.html　

http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201204210262.html

23rd April: Boy George, Fred of Devon, Joan, and all the Gang

23^rd April 

Happy Dragon Slayer’s Day! Yes, it is Saint George’s Day, a day when all of those who dislike dragons and quite like God give thanks for a man on a horse who exterminated a species. Large men in red and white XXL T-shirts, too-tight shorts, sporting the sorts of tans once only seen during the retreat from Tobruk and in hospital waiting rooms, are fond of telling anyone unlucky enough to be within earshot (c.12km) that St. George is the patron saint of England. Now, as we all know that is nonsense. St. George can’t be the patron saint of England as he was the patron saint of Ethiopia first. Just ask anyone in Addis Ababa. However, ‘Tommy’ (aka ‘John Bull’, ‘Britannia’, or ‘Steve from Luton’ with a semi-silent ‘t’ in the latter) will tell you that St George is as English as fish and chips (French or Belgian), brown beer (Egyptian), and bangers and mash (German, Polish etc.). He may be a little perturbed to know that Georgie Boy is not only the patron saint of several places he knows and cares little about, such as Georgia (not where Jimmy Carter grew peanuts), but is also the patron of several places he really doesn’t think too highly of at all, such as Russia, Serbia, and even Germany. Yes, how nice it is to think that the thick, red necks of Albion are celebrating the national saint of countries used as symbols of what Britain fought against during her finest hour(s?). Although, the main patron saint of Germany is St. Boniface. Never heard of him? Nice chap, first bishop of Mainz, and born Winfred, in Wessex, now Devon. Yes, St. Fred came from the land of cream teas. Now, they really are English!

Personally, I prefer Saint Patrick. The patron saint of Ireland, and banisher of snakes. Although it seems Ireland never had snakes, and that the creatures in the fables were the tattoos on druids arms whom Pat chased away. Oh, and the big man himself was Welsh, who became naturalized in Ireland as a slave shepherd in Antrim. And for some reason, it seems he is also the patron saint of Nigeria. It seems the two countries have never fought a war, seem to be on fairly decent terms, and thus can rub along quite merrily with the same patron saint.

And rubbing along nicely is just what many places right now are not able to do. In Syria, the government of Assad has broken its own peace agreement, weedled out of them by Kofi Annan. The UN observers sent in to observe the peace have instead observed carnage and destruction, which appears to have broken out anew when the local people had the temerity to use the ceasefire period to bury those murdered by the dictator’s regime and at the same time demonstrate against such murders. That was clearly sufficient provocation for Assad, who managed to make tanks appear on the streets very quickly, having taken the wise precaution of having hidden them in warehouses at strategic points in cities (safe from climactic effects and UN observation). Now, even China and Russia are losing patience with Assad, as he has even become an embarrassment to the less than lily-white leaders of those two UNSC members.

And, if that wasn’t enough, even prosperous, tiny Bahrain has its civil strife, although it seems that this is the only civil revolt in history caused by the televised procession of rich sports stars round a circuit at high speed. F1 racing at the Bahrain Gran Prix has provided the catalyst for civil rights and democracy protestors (the greedy blighters would like both!) to embarrass their government and upset rich people involved with the rich sport. One of the demonstrators even had the cheek to die during the protests, something that authorities state was caused by unruly elements on the streets, rather than the armoured vehicle-driving, club-wielding, gas-dispersing riot squads of the security forces, they tactfully declined to add. One wonders whether Jenson Button et al will be able to see through the haze of CS gas? http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120422_04.html

And despite the relative lack of world attention, things have gone from bad to quite a little bit worse between Sudan and South Sudan. Pipe lines and refineries have been bombed, land has been occupied, and it seems that the new nation in the south has learned one trick from its former masters in Khartoum. Whenever the other side has done something terrible, unjustified and despicable, make sure you do something even worse to make sure the world just shakes its head and looks the other way while saying ‘bloody Africa!’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17805806 The trouble has not led as yet to great casualties, but the potential is massive for two poor countries, which share oil wealth and its potential for conflict, to engage in a self-defeating struggle that could have devastating consequences for their fragile societies. The UN has a peacekeeping force south of the disputed area, which is c.500km north of the South Sudan capital of Juba, but it was designed as a nation-building force for the new country, not as a conflict-extinguishing force between determined and foolish belligerents. The Japanese, with hundreds of JSDF personnel in Juba, is sitting quietly hoping for peace. Let us hope those hopes are satisfied.

And elsewhere, election fever grips populations. Burma has seen its freest elections in two decades or more, and both Japan and Britain said they would agree to write off vast swathes of Burmese public debt, as a step towards revitalizing the moribund economy. However, a slight glitch has arisen, as the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has denounced the Parliamentary requirement to take up a seat in the chamber to swear an oath of allegiance to uphold the constitution which she believes has kept her under house arrest, her supporters in prison and hiding, and her country under a military yoke for years. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17803628 Since the government seems to be depending upon her National League for Democracy (NLD) to participate in the chamber in order to ‘prove’ to the world that Burma is now a democracy and therefore all sanctions should be removed, this is quite an impasse, that may be overcome by a compromise change of wording. However, it illustrates the many potential obstacles to democratic progress that may arise over coming months.

And think also for the little men of politics, who work tirelessly for the people and get little or no recognition. Yes, think of Nicholas Sarkozy, French President, not very tall chap, master politician, a man seemingly devoid of ideology, but possessing an amazing commitment to success, who is now the underdog after his five year term has expired. The leader in the polls is Francois Hollande, with even Marine Le Pen, the daughter of and staunch stalwart of the French far right National Front, doing rather well in the polls. It seems Nicholas has annoyed too many people. Foreign news often refers to his personal life, described in Japan as hadena seikatsu or a rather garish way of life, involving divorcing his wife, and four months later marrying the glamorous model/singer/actress Carla Bruni, his third wife. In France, however, most people are bothered about the economy, jobs, prices, the Euro, and safety in a country where a multiple murderer terrorised the south of the country just a few weeks ago. Nicholas is not being condemned for marrying, but perhaps for his seeming lack of commitment to facing the biggest problems most French people see, and aiming instead at attacking some of the problems he sees as crippling France, such as an overdependence upon the state and welfare, and a failure to embrace the mercantile practices of the Anglo-Atlantic. It seems that he sees himself as slaying demons, while others see him as tilting at windmills. In fact, he seems to see himself as St. George, slaying the dragons of a slothful and sclerotic society, while the French people, not unnaturally perhaps, see themselves as St. Joan of Arc, being burnt by the evil forces of Anglo-Saxon influence. Whatever the final result, France, tomorrow, will probably be a rather interesting place to be. My advice: read your edition of The Economist at home, rather than on the Metro. And possibly leave the St. George T-shirt in the drawer.

16th April: No Nuke Nihon, Just for One Day in May

16^th April 

While cherry blossom petals and North Korean missile parts gently descend to earth, life goes on peacefully and normally in Japan. Universities announced a 16% drop in applications for courses in nuclear engineering, the government announces that there will be a moment very shortly when Japan will have zero nuclear generated electricity on-line (on 6^th May http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120416a2.html ), and TEPCO and Chubu Electric have made announcements that have completely restored public faith in nuclear power. Readers may notice that one of those things seemed quite odd, and was possibly wrong. However, the cherry blossom this season have been delayed and therefore are still falling around us.

Meanwhile TEPCO have announced that a second thermometer has broken in the Dai-ichi No.2 reactor, so that only half of the original plant total remain intact. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120416a1.html This comes from the company that a couple of months ago told us that the temperature rise in one of the reactors was probably down to a faulty sensor and therefore nothing to worry about as everything was really safe. The ‘probably’ was a nice touch, and a sign of the new Japan, where clear statements of fact (in other lands, sometimes known as ‘lies’), are no longer quite as acceptable as they once were. TEPCO also told us over the weekend (nice time to keep bad news quiet) that a 35 ton crane jib had fallen into the spent waste fuel pool at No.1 reactor at Dai-ichi. In March. March 2011. Nice to be told really. And to make it seem all the nicer, the pool it fell into was the only one which contained plutonium fuel rods, rather than uranium. But they tell us it is all safe and the temperature isn’t rising. Probably. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120415a4.html

Meanwhile Chubu power, who provide electricity to Nagano, Shizuoka, and the areas west of the TEPCO area and east of Kansai, announced that they were confident they can restart the Hamaoka Nuclear plant, most dramatically closed down on the orders of former PM Kan as the plant was built right by the beach, with little protection against tsunami, on a spit of land jutting out into the Suruga Bay, in one of the most volatile earthquake and tsunami zones of Japan, where the Japanese government has made its one and only firm earthquake prediction (there WILL be a big one there, and it WILL be terrible, so buy a helmet and a torch). Why the plant was built there in the first place has little to do with the present but with a previous, innocent age when rosy cheeked children played by the reactors and dreamed of being able to split atoms themselves, and everyone was protected by the cozy relationship between scientists, companies, bureaucrats, and the well-financed members of the LDP (now in opposition). It was a happy time, a golden age. Now Chubu Electric is saying that they are confident that the plant can be reopened in a year or two, after they have finished the 18 meter high wall to prevent a tsunami rushing in, which is nice. Except, the government report and revised assessment of mega-quakes around Japan highlighted the likelihood, in their opinion, that the plant area is likely facing a potential 21 meter tsunami. Chubu today pressed ahead and said that they are confident that operations can resume soon, but when questioned upon the three meter ‘gap’ between wall and prediction, they had, in NHK’s rather nice, understated phrase ‘no particular answer’.

This comes as the government, in the person of Trade and Industry Minister Edano, a normally rather lively and competent fellow it seems, attempted to reassure residents in Fukui that it would be safe to restart the reactors at the Oi plant, after the stress tests have been met. However, locals and those further away are rather upset and the government seems likely to have to back off if not down. The speed of the decision, the nature of the tests, the ‘result led drive’ of the government and Kansai Electric, and many other factors have raised ire to the point where it seems the decision and its announcement may have actually delayed the re-commissioning of the reactors for some time. Which leaves PM Noda and Edano looking somewhat chumpish, and seeming somewhat churlish, as the DPJ were supposed to be the party that didn’t subscribe to the cozy-corner of the nuclear club. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120416a3.html

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120415a2.html

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120416_21.html

 And NHK was on the phone to the Taliban, which they broadcast on the TV news. The Taliban almost apologized for hitting the Japanese Embassy in Kabul with rockets yesterday and today, as the Japanese Embassy is near the UK, US, and German missions, and the NATO ISAF HQ, which the Taliban were actually targeting. Now, how did NHK have their number? http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120416_25.html

 Also, in the wake of the North Korean bonfire night there is fresh fear that the DPRK may be developing a new missile capability, based largely upon the parade held yesterday in Pyongyang which showed two wheeled vehicles carrying what appeared to be large missiles. An ‘expert’ said they looked possibly as though they might have the range to reach the US, but since the larger, non-mobile ones could barely make it out of North Korea this seems a tad fanciful. Unless he meant they could possibly drive to the US. Even so, North Korean trucks don’t seem that good. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120415_21.html

Pyongyang has said it will not allow UN IAEA nuclear inspectors into their facilities, after the US ‘broke’ its agreement on food aid, due to the North ‘breaking’ its agreement on launching missiles, and based upon both sides ‘breaking’ their agreements to agree to disagree. This seems as though we are travelling back in time to almost any point of the last two decades. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120416_26.html

 And a Japanese architect has had his plan sanctioned to build a partly cardboard cathedral to replace the one almost destroyed in Christchurch in the 2011 quake. It seems it will cost NZ$4 million, and is designed to last 20 years. Let us hope that it works. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120416_22.html

 In less uplifting news, the trial began today of Anders Behring Breivik in Norway, accused of killing more than 80 with bombs and guns last year. The British media are devoting a lot of attention to the case, not least as Norway is a place most of us have long considered a peaceful and friendly place across the sea, and partly as the accused has claimed association with English right-wing maniacs. His agenda seems to be anti-multiculturalism, and anti-socialism, and he has been deemed sane, although his claim that he killed the people in self-defence is, on the face of it, the raving of a madman. Being Norway, he will have five days to put his case, however repellent it might be, which demonstrates how tolerant Norway actually is. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/apr/16/anders-behring-breivik-trial-live 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17724535

 And in other worrying news that few in Japan will read of, Sudan and South Sudan are fighting, and it is getting worse, to the extent that a UN peacekeepers’ base was attacked in an air raid by Sudan. The problem for Japan is that the JSDF have just begun their PKO in South Sudan, and should the fighting intensify or spread, they may be required by law to withdraw, something which fills the government and JSDF with dread, as it would provide a terrible example of Japanese international resolve. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15700483