14th April
As Chief Vitalstatistix always said to the proud Gaul’s of his village in the Asterix stories, “We have nothing to fear, but the sky falling on our heads!” And despite the best efforts of Pyongyang, there was little to fear from the launch of the North Korean Rocket/Missile/Lemon, as within two minutes of the launch it had disintegrated and crashed to earth, landing mainly in the Yellow Sea, west of South Korea. Yet another DPRK space failure, to match the failures in just about every other department of the sad and lonely state. As The Economist stated: “On balance, the missile debacle looks laughable, but isn’t. It appears likely to increase the regime’s international isolation, which tends to make it more threatening. It is also likely to increase the young Mr Kim’s credibility gap at home, which may make him more repressive.” http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/04/north-koreas-botched-satellite-launch?fsrc=nlw|newe|4-13-2012|1376807|37680338|
The reason that North Korea may become more isolated is that they managed the tricky job of annoying everybody by defying UN sanctions and resolutions and the threats and pressures of its ‘enemies’ (Korea, Japan, and the US), while also resisting the pleas of its friends (well China, and possibly a rather more remote Russia). It managed to both antagonize, and yet look weak, which always seemed likely, but was very far from what the regime desired, and hence the amazing degree of openness in the run-up to the launch. Japan, the US, China, and other countries have had many missile/launcher failures over the years, as this is a rather tricky technical field, where inter-nation cooperation is the exception. The DPRK effort, however, looked odd from the outset. They were overtly attempting to launch a satellite that, to the non-specialist, looked rather recherché, and to specialists on NHK in Japan looked like a university student science project, with its clumsy plastic brackets, obvious rivets and bolts, and the distinct lack of many external sensors. It looked like the sort of thing that kids make for ‘Robot Wars’ on the telly, where boys (and yes, almost always boys, with hair, skin, and social problems) take time out from staring at their toes caps or tweeting about sci-fi trivia to make machines out of odd parts that whir along gymnasium floors and collect balls and throw them into baskets, with the possibility of a collision for the tension element. Indeed, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, would not be out of place in the gymnasium, and perhaps that is what he thought he was doing. Indeed, there are many cartoons depicting the wonder that was the latest launch: http://www.cartoonaday.com/north-korea-launches-missile/ http://www.google.co.jp/imgres?q=Kim+Jong+Un+cartoon&hl=ja&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:ja:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7ADRA_jaJP359&biw=1366&bih=516&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=nO4AanFVpUtJmM:&imgrefurl=http://politicalcartoonsaustralia.com/tag/kim-jong-un/&docid=lvWI7RVR0FraEM&imgurl=http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2011/12/20/1226227/060383-mark-knight-cartoon.jpg&w=650&h=433&ei=1JKJT-jpLYfumAXT793wCQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=99&vpy=18&dur=1015&hovh=183&hovw=275&tx=179&ty=114&sig=103312793627673698464&page=1&tbnh=149&tbnw=197&start=0&ndsp=12&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:64 (Sorry, that is a very long link, but quite interesting.)
One of the better versions had the young dear leader sitting aghast seeing the launch saying, “No, I said LUNCH!”
The fear, that many media sources are carrying, is that this failure and sense of humiliation could well push the DPRK into testing another nuclear device, as its previous tests have also been only qualified successes at best. This would elevate tensions to a new high, for a failed rocket of possible civil utility is quite different from the obvious and unavoidable fact of a regenerated nuclear weapons project. Already the UNSC has denounced the attempted launch, and the US has cut off food aid, in steps that will be seen as highly provocative in Pyongyang. As yet, there have been few concrete steps by Seoul or Tokyo. It would seem that the leadership might also be rather more cautious than external media suppose, and be wondering what to do next, and it is rather, luckily, absorbed in celebrating the 100th anniversary of the birth of the DPRK Founder and Great Dear Leader Kim Il Sung. One can only hope that caution prevails, and that they decide to wait and see if they can move on past this current tension. Certainly this is what Chinese media are urging. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-04/14/content_15046684.htm
And one can only hope that the other flaws apparent from the failed launch on 12th April will be thoroughly investigated. As mentioned last week, Japan was at full alert for the launch and possible raining metal upon Japanese territory. At least the JSDF and government were on full alert. Most Japanese were bemused and expressed only a passing interest. The launch, just after 07:40 on Thursday (12th) was known to be a failure in the US and South Korea by approximately 08:00. The missile blew up, or disintegrated, most likely due to a problem in the separation of the first stage main booster rocket and fuel cell, at some point between one and two minutes into the flight, at which point it had reached an altitude of at least 120km. The Japan Times, which was supposed to be ‘in the loop’ received its first notification at 08:09, stating that it could not be confirmed if a launch had taken place, which was perhaps not altogether helpful for a newspaper to base a story upon. The actual notification came at 08:37. Defense Minister Tanaka began a public statement on the matter at approximately 08:24, and stated that the missile had failed and crashed, although approximately 25 minutes after equivalent statements in Seoul and Washington. As Tanaka himself stated, “There was some difference (in timing) but we did the best we could.” Which, sadly, is probably true.
The fact that newspapers didn’t have the facts very quickly isn’t a major crisis, but the JSDF and Okinawan and other local governments also didn’t seem to have been given the facts. The J-Alert system, founded in 2007, and tasked with alerting the whole country about crises such as tsunami, earthquakes, and missiles, didn’t come into action. It provided no alerts of any launch, and no data was provided at all, until the same mails that the Japan Times received. Indeed, several local government officials in Okinawa said that they received news about the launches by either watching US or Korean TV news, or by receiving phone calls from family and friends who were watching foreign news. The unofficial explanation for this seemingly odd scenario on NHK news was provided by a retired MSDF Admiral and missile expert, who stated that the launch was very far away, and the missile broke up rather quickly, so naturally the Japanese systems wouldn’t have picked up anything, or be able to pass data to anyone. Which rather begs several questions. If Japanese sensors couldn’t pick up a large missile at an altitude of 120km, when would they imagine that the missile could be tracked? Then, how long before JSDF missiles would have time to react? And then, what the devil is the point in having the J-Alert system for civilians to take protective measures? Since the cost of the system is terribly high, and many councils haven’t had the funds to install it, perhaps they would do better to take out subscriptions to CNN and KBS. They would also be able to see all the latest Korean TV dramas, which are so popular in Japan, although none are likely to be as dramatic as the tale of a young man with a bad haircut who takes over his late father’s empire and quickly finds out that nothing works, the empire is on the point of collapse, and there are warriors and demons in every corridor waiting for the worst scenario. Just don’t ask the Japanese government to give advice on this drama. They’ll all be watching the other channel, where nothing is happening at all.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120414a1.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17703212
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-17715020
Certainly, Chinese TV viewers will have had no shortage of drama recently, as the secret is out, and Bo Xilai, Governor of Chongqing province in south-western China, and a rising populist star of the new Chinese Communist Party that appeals to the upwardly mobile young was suspended from his party posts on 10th April. The cat is also out of the bag about his family, with many wondering how his son came to be educated overseas, and his wife to be a rich business woman when Bo was a poor party official. But the cat has turned into a tiger that threatens to eat the family and the local party structure as well, as Bo’s wife, Gu Kailai, has been indicted in an investigation concerning the mysterious death of a British businessman, Neil Haywood, after he became embroiled in a business dispute with Gu, rumours of which have been running around the web for weeks. Bo’s deputy, Wang Lijun, seemingly attempted to gain asylum from the local US consulate as a whistleblower on the corrupt practices, before leaving the building and being detained by authorities, who it seems didn’t know whether to focus upon Wang’s treachery or the seeming corruption of Bo and his cohorts.
What, if anything, does it say about China? Could this be symptomatic of a wild-west mentality, or a sign of the increasing openness and maturity of the Communist Party to address such illegality and attempt to make China a developed country in both economic and legal terms? Probably neither, but it illustrates the difficulties any regime faces in controlling news and information in a literate, technologically developed society. Truth will out, and the CCP may not be quite ready to handle that truth. http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2012/04/bo-xilais-political-demise
If any confirmation were needed of how difficult it can be to control a society and its information flow, look at Syria. The land of unity and ceasefires, where the President seems determined to alienate every possible external and internal group other than his ruling cabal. Thousands have died, mainly among the opposition and the civilians caught in the crossfire, but still it goes on, and remarkably little is actually done outside of sending envoys, implementing peace plans, dispatching observers, and passing motions of censure. Details have emerged of the Presidents proxy internet shopping to avoid UN sanctions, of his western educated media advisors and spokespeople, and of how his wife can travel freely around Europe, as she has a UK passport, but few details have merged of why the world is doing so little to prevent a slaughter far worse than that which occurred in Libya. Syria has more allies than Gaddafi had, but is that the only explanation? Is the west simply spent after a decade of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? Are many people suffering from emotional fatigue, having seen so many instances of brutality and crisis that they simply throw their hands in the air and denounce the rest of the world as ‘full of lunatics’? The US election contest provides one example that would appear to suggest this, as the hottest subject contested seems to revolve around the right of a woman to choose whether or not she proceeds with her pregnancy. Not America’s place in the world, the right to utilize force for national or international goals, or the state of the world economy. Maybe the world really is full of lunatics, both near and far.

Recent Comments