Friday 25th March
Two weeks since the quake and some degrees of progressive stabilisation, of continuing crisis, and of sustained bafflement.
The Dai-ichi plant represents all three, with seeming progress made in cooling, fixing up control systems, and in preventing explosions, but it is still serious, there is little understanding apparent as to what the real problems are, and more workers have been hospitalized with radiation exposure. The bafflement comes more with the case of the three hospitalized workers (one was later released, the other two were sent to a specialist radiation treatment facility in Chiba). They were not TEPCO folks, but of a TEPCO-affiliate subcontractor, trying to connect cables in the number 3 reactor’s turbine building (the longer building on the sea-side of the reactor block), which disturbingly also has a large hole in the roof. Now, the place was hit by a tsunami, and they have pumping water onto the reactors for about 10 days now, so there is a lot of water around, but 2 of the 3 were sent into the building (with the hole in the roof) wearing shoes, rather than protective and waterproof boots. They stepped into a body of water 15cm deep, and received burns, as the water was found to have a radiation reading of about 400m/s/hour (I think that is right, not good on these milli-sievert things), whereas the new elevated threshold for workers is 250m/s/h.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Edano Yukio said that, “This kind of exposure, from water, was unforeseen”, although I suppose that means unforeseen by TEPCO officials. The number of people known to have required treatment due to radiation exposure is now 17, and the latest two were among the most serious, having been exposed to beta rays (which can pierce light materials, but not metals or concrete). That number is, considering the scale of the problem and the variety and number of people involved in the containment operation, surprisingly low. Having seen video of fire-crews being told to shield themselves from radiation behind their standard fire trucks it would seem almost miraculous. It seems that unlike Chernobyl no-one has been exposed to gamma rays (which pierce most materials), are often fatal, and are emitted from uranium, plutonium etc. The No.3 reactor uses a mix of uranium and plutonium as its fuel source.
Three newspaper reports of the incident give an interesting contrast.
Daily Yomiuri is next to useless:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110324005317.htm
The Guardian is rather good:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/24/japan-nuclear-plant-workers-hospital
The Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese) is the most detailed, and yet uncritical, scarcely a surprise for anyone familiar with Japanese media:
http://mainichi.jp/select/weathernews/20110311/news/20110325k0000e040071000c.html
One quote in the Mainichi was from a spokesman of the nuclear inspection agency: “We would like to find a delicate balance of keeping delay to the minimum and ensuring the safety of the people working there.” That is the point of the problem: how much risk will they accept these people taking in order to reduce the risk to the rest of us.
The Mainichi has been somewhat critical of the government in its leader articles (as have the other papers to some degree), with one yesterday ridiculing the official view of food and drink containing traces of iodine as “These products won't harm your health. But just in case, we don't want you to eat or drink them.”
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/perspectives/news/20110324p2a00m0na022000c.html
The Japan Times has done sterling work. No article on those hospitalized, other than a small piece from a news agency, and one short article on neutron beams being observed 13 times in the vicinity of the plant. The last line of the brief piece is astonishing:
“But the measured neutron beam may be evidence that uranium and plutonium leaked from the plant's nuclear reactors and spent nuclear fuel have discharged a small amount of neutron beams via fission.”
(http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110324a6.html )
This appeared yesterday, with no follow up, analysis, or comment. Did you manage to catch their drift? Uranium or plutonium may have leaked out of the reactor, via nuclear fission. That is what men in white coats call ‘a nuclear explosion’ of some sort. Could be large or small. But it really isn’t good. One would have thought that in the land of the genbaku dome that this news, if accurate, would be worthy of a little more comment and analysis.
A BBC feature of a week ago had this comment:
"The worst-case scenario would be where you have the fission products in stored canisters or in the reactors being released," said Professor Malcolm Sperrin, director of medical physics and clinical engineering at Royal Berkshire Hospital, UK.
"Radiation levels would then be very high around the plant, which is not to say they'd reach the general public.
"And we're definitely not in the situation where we're going to see another Chernobyl - that possibility has long gone."
So, if the Japan Times article is true, then we are in the worst case scenario. But that hasn’t been established yet. Also, what is the worst case scenario for this case is definitely not the same as the scenario of Chernobyl.
(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12789749 )
There are some good maps to track radiation levels throughout Japan, such as this daily map update from the Japan Times:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/radiation-levels.html
My radiation level has doubled in a week, but is still very low, and was probably made worse by sustained rain over the past few days.
There are also equivalents for radiation in water (http://atmc.jp/water/ ) with relatively low levels in four prefectures, and my area seeming to be very low indeed, despite the rain (which I don’t understand).
One thing to always understand is that the Japanese levels are low, and that Japanese standards for radiation are very low compared to many other countries. Far more danger outside of the immediate reactor area from traffic accidents, second-hand smoke, and alcohol (the risk of which to me I intentionally raised this evening).
The general domestic and international consensus is that things are improving, not quite under control yet, but getting closer, and that there is no reason to panic. The water is relatively safe, avoid fish from the immediate waters (no fishing boats are operating anywhere near the quake zones anyway, but despite this prices have crashed at and customers evaporated from the Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo), avoid the leafy vegetables from the immediate area, and avoid the evacuation zone (now 20km, with a further restricted 10km, but possibly the evacuation zone is about to be expanded, due to difficulties in supplying goods to those marooned). Interestingly, no US personnel have been allowed into the plant, or within 80km of it (more below).
The compensation issue for farmers and others is a little mixed. TEPCO is responsible, but in the relevant Nuclear Disaster Law article it, apparently, states that the government is obliged to compensate for losses where the responsible party is unable to do so. Therefore, if TEPCO claims poverty, or goes into liquidation, then we, the tax payers, will be paying for all of this. Remember 2008 onwards and the financial crisis, and talk of toxic debt? This appears to be the real thing.
Today, for the first time (I believe), there has been an official acknowledgement that the summer will be tough, and that eastern Japan is missing about 20-30% of its power requirements for the hot weather. Kaieda Banri, Minister for Trade and Industry, admitted that there was a problem, with the summer power peak being between 60 and 65 million kilowatts and current capacity at just over 40 mill/kw.
The article was very short, so little detail or seemingly any plan in place to bridge the gap (http://mainichi.jp/select/seiji/news/20110325k0000e010047000c.html ). For a far more detailed and excellently presented analysis of the problem I would recommend a site passed onto me by my friend George, written by ‘Spike Japan’ (http://spikejapan.wordpress.com/), which addresses all the things the politicians, TEPCO, and the media are simply ignoring for the moment. The power gap is apparently serious, will get worse, and there are not too many ways in which it can be bridged. Spike doesn’t really mention the ‘silver bullet’ solution that has been mentioned, importing energy in various forms from Russia. However, even this, and the re-commissioning of mothballed LNG, coal, and oil plants, and possibly one or two nuclear plants coming back on stream (assuming they went off stream as a precaution and not as a result of any real damage), and continual energy saving measures would still leave a gap.
Presumably, the efforts to reconnect quake affected areas will proceed, as will the efforts to restart (electric) train services in Tohoku, and thus increase consumption. Western Japan has a capacity surplus, but the two halves of the country run at different cycles (50 and 60hz), so conversion is apparently tricky.
(Stop me if I baffle you with science: it’s like Osaka has coffee, and Tokyo has tea. Or else, they both have tea, but Osaka prefers Earl Grey, and Tokyo really can’t stand that flowery smell. This really isn’t helping is it?)
Even more important, I would have thought (and previously wrote) to have ships alongside in port areas to provide local power and water for the time being for local recovery efforts, but no-one is listening or reading with much interest. If one US nuclear vessel would come alongside, the increase in recovery capacity would be huge.
However, no US personnel are being allowed within 80km of the nuclear plant, by the US government. Yes, the same government which has pledged to help survivors, which has done a great deal to help those affected in Miyagi and Iwate, and which is probably more than a little concerned that this crisis is resolved with little drama, doesn’t think it is worth risking any degree of contamination to any US citizen.
The degree of US, and other international support for the recovery phase has been under-reported in the national press, although it seems the local papers are much more enthusiastic. The US has provided background heavy lift and logistical support, drone surveillance of the power plant as well as other intelligence, airlift into affected areas and directly provided supplies. Some people have commented on their impression that the US carrier group could surely treat Japanese in its hospital facilities, but that hasn’t happened yet, and also the seeming waste of operating jet fighters from the carrier when helicopter lift is so vital (yes, F/A18s have been flying around monitoring the situation, but I don’t really know what they have contributed). The limitations of the 80km US exclusion rule are also clear, as when a pump for the power plant was delivered from Australia, and the USN provided specialist barges to move it up to Tohoku (as road and air facilities are still too badly affected), but they had to be moved by MSDF personnel.
My friend David this evening commented on a report that the USN had provided thousands of hot-dogs to the MSDF, which then cooked and delivered them to the local population in affected areas. We agreed that this was a wasted opportunity for the US. They should have really sent in a few landing craft with hot dog stands, marines and sailors with vats of mustard and soft-drink stands, and turned the whole thing into a carnival, possibly with a marching band. Imagine the hugely positive PR, and the effect on the locals of such an event. It might have struck some as insensitive, but the need to enjoy life a little is massively underestimated for survivors.
Most of the search and rescue teams have now departed, but some countries remain, and some aid efforts have been surprisingly generous. Even North Korea has pledged $100,000 (some report $500,000), although I’m not at all sure why, or how it will arrive. For the situation up to yesterday, this is the best resource I could find in English:
http://www.coe-dmha.org/Research/ResearchInfoMgmt/Japan/Japan03242011.pdf
Who knew South Africa and Israel had sent personnel?
It includes details that the Russians have sent rescue teams, two planes of equipment, and staff from the Russian Rusatom nuclear industry body to assist the Japanese in any way they can. Not too bothered about exclusion zones in Russia.
As for the minor inconvenience of the power cuts, it continues. Last night I was due a cut, but didn’t have one, despite a flicker in my lights at 9pm. Perhaps the President of TEPCO has his bunker around the corner. Come to think of it, there is an old abandoned house, all shuttered up...
This evening we had a fine meeting at a Chigasaki bar (Hopman), which serves micro-brewery ale of great quality. The evening was fine, in fine company, but at 7pm the lights went out. At that point, Julian, David, and myself were the only three customers, with the master and his two helpers behind the bar. By the time we left, at about 8pm, I suppose, the place was packed. Small, bright torches were carefully positioned for us around the room, and another in the toilet. It was a lot of fun and very atmospheric. I had unfortunately made a mistake in removing my bicycle headlight to use at home in case of sudden power cut, so had to slowly and carefully navigate my way through dark streets guided by car headlights and the torches carried by every other person. After 10 minutes, I entered a lit zone, and all was normal.
The latest casualty figures today are as of noon, 25th March:
10,035 confirmed dead, 17,443 missing. No word on the injured.
Hi Garren, Alan pointed me to your blog.
Thank you so much for setting your observations up in your blog! I very much appreciate your observations and assessments. Looking from afar (I'm in the SF Bay area), and having lived in Japan for almost 13 years, nothing you write surprises me at all.
Please keep this up.
Best wishes,
:: doris
Posted by: Doris Kyburz | 03/27/2011 at 04:28 AM