13th April
The main news items are two things of interest to most people in Japan, but only one will probably have been reported overseas.
The state of nuclear alert has been raised from level 5 to level 7, thereby equalling Chernobyl. This has been seen as a sign of things getting worse, the four horsemen polishing their spurs and packing sandwiches for a long day in the saddle, and all sorts of other things. Certain events and aspects of the crisis were rated at level 6, but the overall incident rating was still at 5, until yesterday.
It is certainly NOT a sign of any progress or improvement, but the actual change of nuclear alert states is simply based upon the best guess of how much total radioactive material has been released thus far. It is a cumulative process that now seems to have passed the threshold of level 7. For those who wish to see the worst, well, they will feel vindicated. (Thanks to Julian for this link, which was later revised, he says, with a little less gloom: http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/japan-may-raise-nuclear-accident-severity-level-to-highest-7-from-5
However, there is an alternative view. It is simply a number value that still does not mean that Chernobyl was the same or equivalent to Dai-ichi.
The best analysis of the comparison is not on the web yet, but should be tomorrow, sorry, today, 13th April (in Japanese, possibly here: http://www.nhk.or.jp/kaisetsu-blog/100/ ). It was delivered by NHK’s veteran Russia correspondent, Ishikawa Kazuhiro, who for the past couple of years has been a senior commentator with NHK’s ‘news commentator’s bureau’ (http://www.nhk.or.jp/kaisetsu-blog/100/ ). He has reported on Chernobyl over the years, and has been the Russia ‘face’ of NHK for as long as most of us can remember. He went on the oddly NHK programme Jiron Koron (something like ‘timely discussion, public discussion’), which is a 10 minute talking head, reading from a script, just after midnight. Yes, really racey TV. Ishikawa provided a comparison of Chernobyl and Dai-ichi, which few have done in detail. He explained that the radioactive material released in Chernobyl was 10 times greater than that from Dai-ichi, and that the massive and sudden release and the efforts to contain it, directly led to the deaths by radiation of 29 workers. He also gave detail of the ways that the radiation spread, on winds that blew north-west, and also the contamination of farm produce.
Now, since these things were much worse in the USSR it might be thought that this was another ‘all is well in Japan speech’. But it really wasn’t. He then went on to detail how the situation in Fukushima is a lot more complex. Dai-ichi has six reactors, with four in immediate trouble, while Chernobyl had only one in trouble, and unlike Dai-ichi the Soviets didn’t store spent fuel rods in the immediate vicinity of troubled reactors. The Soviets didn’t have the power and water problems the Japanese have, and didn’t have to consider the maritime contamination (and ignored the ground water contamination issue), and that the major crisis at the Chernobyl plant lasted for about 10 days, and then was pretty much over, as most of the radiation had been dispersed by then. It was then clean up and containment. He also stated that since Chernobyl, and to a great degree before then, the world knew a lot about high level radiation exposure. However, the great unknown factor is low-level, sustained exposure, as has affected Tohoku and Kanto.
For those searching for feel-good cuddles this was a slap round the chops with a robustly- swung halibut. But calmly delivered. Also, he was (politely) scathing of TEPCO, NISA, and the government in waiting 20 days to conduct a survey of airborne radiation contamination, and then failing to follow-up the results with altered evacuation and other safety advice (as reported, the government expanded evacuation areas on 11th April, but in a vague, conditional way that seemed to satisfy nobody). Ishikawa reported that the US National Nuclear Security Administration mapping estimates of the radioactive plumes from Dai-ichi were a result of the US, and other nuclear powers, having the sense of caution and experience of crisis management lacking in Japan. The NNSA maps showed a highly radioactive plume moving, surprisingly enough, north-west, and with very little connection to the 20 and 30km evacuation zones announced by the government, but corresponding closely to the results of ground surveys conducted by IAEA and Greenpeace testers almost two weeks ago. He rather derisively stated that the Japanese hadn’t bothered to conduct their own tests for almost three weeks, or even to use the model-forecasts carried out, based upon the scant Japanese released data, by the US, French, and Russian groups actively following the situation. (He didn’t mention the British nuclear safety people, but presumably they were downsized by this Con-Dem government, and were forced to follow events by reading the papers in the local library, or by phoning their mums).
Really, an iron fist, delivering a knock-out punch, wrapped up in the most beige, salaryman, deadpan delivery. A tour de force of the ordinary and wise.
The second news item? Those in these parts of Japan will know. The regular and worrying degree of earthquakes from Miyagi and Fukushima, down through Ibaraki and Chiba, and even over in Nagano and Niigata. Three big ones yesterday, a couple last night in bed (no puns please we're in crisis), and a big one this morning, while getting on a train, another in my office during a small meeting, and a third while in a large meeting room. The first and third were signalled by the mass of bleeping mobile phone alerts (first reported by Andreas), and a sign that the quake was coming, as the first did after about 10-15 seconds. Unlike yesterday’s (11th) quakes, when four people died (http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_08.html) nobody seems to have died this time, but most news has concentrated upon reporting how the quakes have affected the nuclear power plants. Yes, important, but even more important are the effects the regular strong quakes are having upon people’s sensibilities and feelings.
A colleague, on the journey home this evening spoke loudly and at length (in Japanese) about his fears of tsunami, earthquakes, further death and injury, and the fate of eastern Japan. It was quite a diatribe, and unexpected coming from a mature Japanese professor who has researched and worked in developing countries with refugees living in some very harsh environments. He was rather emotional, and very pessimistic. The subject of discussion was the continuing series of quakes and the sense of foreboding many feel about them. This intelligent and experienced man felt and expressed what many others appear to be feeling.
In our faculty meeting it was confirmed that there are a few of our faculty’s students from Tohoku with whom the office have not been able to establish contact. This may well be due to simple disruption, but at least one student has a family member missing, and another has been evacuated due to the Dai-ichi plant. Others have partially damaged or destroyed homes.
While not a day for jollity, and while my three trains to work were all delayed, they weren’t delayed by much, the service is very good considering everything, the university is working well, it was good to see people, and we chatted about the disaster, and many other things. Two good news stories of the day (yes, we could all use those). One was a student telling me he had passed a scholarship interview for studying in Egypt, and he was really looking forward to it. When I asked how his family felt, he said they now understood he was really going, and at least there are no tsunami in Egypt. The indomitable spirit of youth! The other was a colleague telling me that while he also suffers from the same allergies as myself, he had found a really useful palliative measure: eat half a large tub of plain yoghurt each day! I love yoghurt, and that sounds just great. Only thing is, I have to queue up (outside, in the pollen) from dawn to make sure I can get a pot (and only one, as it is rationed by the eagle-eyed old dears of the cash registers). Oh well. Progress of sorts.
So, in an ideal world, we would be eating yoghurt, in Egypt.
Charlie Rose had Naguib Sawiris, Chairman & CEO of Orascom Telecom, and head of a new minority party in Egypt on last night. Pessimistic about the future of Egypt. Will eat my yoghurt here instead, if you don't mind. As for the switch to 7 on the disaster scale, isn't that another example of true and accurate information that is worse than no information at all? I mean, so it's a 7. That's cause for distress, right? But it's 1/10 the 7 of Chernobyl's 7, if you can make sense of that. We are not informed. On the other front, the malaise that living with endless tremors brings, that's a malaise with a real whallop. Time to get serious about ways to deal with psychological stress, I should think. All around. Heard yesterday of an Oberlin student killed in the tsunami, the second now, as the circles of connections begin to overlap. Another sneaky psychological whallop. All very sobering. As is the astonishing stupidity of the people of Tokyo putting that putz back in office after he calls this a punishment from God. That probably depresses me most of all.
Posted by: Alan McCornick | 04/13/2011 at 05:38 AM