16th April: Nuts

16^th April

 23C today, and a lovely, sunny day. What could be better than defying the pollen, cycling with a mate, and calling in on friends, sitting in their lovely garden, and enjoying tea and delicious homemade cake? Also very interesting as there was the natural range of conversation subjects: how the hell did Ishihara get re-elected, what does everyone think of PM Kan, who will get what compensation from TEPCO, and how can carrot cake taste this great? Really, is it the pecans on the top, the mixing, the dried fruit, or is it because his dead brother was a decent actor? Some of those answers need to be matched with the correct questions, but in the absence of a blog crossword or sudoku that is the best that can be managed by way of entertainment for the bored and restless.

Interesting comments were had.

Ishihara symbolizes something almost lost in Japan: the young, wild, intelligent, talented, motivated men who lived the high and sophisticated life, and then settled down and tried to lead the country to better things, but the country let them down. It is Japan that is at fault, not these men, and the country has gone to the dogs despite their best efforts, and the most active community of voters, the over 60s,  a very large group in Japan, largely acknowledge this and repay their debt. Ishihara was (perhaps) re-elected by the most politically active, the most eager newspaper readers, and the most well informed of political affairs: the old.

Kan is largely trusted and respected by liberals, mainly for his Green Cross and other public good advocacy days. He has fallen on hard times, has a terrible job, and is doing his best. Many long-term Japan foreigners also subscribe to this view. Many Japanese reject this view and see Kan as just another politician desperate to cling to power, keep himself and his party in the top position, and essentially lacking in the requisite personal and professional capacities to be an effective leader. Whichever view is subscribed to (or one of many other variants) the counter-point comment is always the same: who else? There is a dearth of quality in Japanese politics that is not a recent phenomenon. By contrast French, German, and British politicians (to name just three national groupings that have come in for a great of criticism in recent years) seem to be among the best and brightest of their lands, with people of genuine talent vying for positions within and between parties. In Japan, there are perhaps three or four decent, talented, and (seemingly) honest people per major party, and a number other lesser experienced contenders. In the DPJ, apart from Kan there are Okada, Maehara (out of the cabinet now), the popular but inexperienced Renho, and the experienced, stable, safe, but not terribly exciting Kitazawa. In the LDP, well, the selection is worse, as many defected from the party when it hit the rocks a couple of years back. The most capable politicians are probably Fukuda (semi-retired), Koizumi (the elder, and retired), Ishiba (active and capable), possibly Machimura and Koike (former foreign and defence ministers, respectively), and one or two others. As a friend asked, “If the LDP were in power, do you think we would be getting more or less information about the true state of affairs at the Dai-ichi plant?” The answer was for everyone to laugh, as it was a wonderfully ridiculous question, with only one answer.

The compensation that TEPCO will be required to pay, in total, is limited by law to \1.25 trillion (that is yen, but the symbol doesn't seem to work on this blog, and might be an errant zero in there? Could be \125 billion), with the government required to pay for any compensation above that figure. One estimate has put the costs of the Dai-ichi crisis alone at approximately \10 trillion, and with TEPCO having assets of \13.2 trillion and liabilities of \10 trillion in March 2010, that would equate to insolvency. http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201104150129.html  

There is talk of the government disbanding TEPCO, and other talk of a ‘profit cap’ on TEPCO earnings in the future but let us not hold our breath. (http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110416p2a00m0na005000c.html ) In the meantime, TEPCO has announced initial, unconditional compensation (meaning that this interim compensation will not affect the final compensation settlements), with lots of conditions attached. It will be available for 50,000 households, within 30km of the Dai-ichi plant, with each family receiving \1 million, and each single person living alone \750,000. For comparison, the average expenditure of a small family in Japan was estimated by the government to be \291,000, with average salary at approximately 500,000, although this average is much higher than the Fukushima average. (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c13cont.htm) There will be (as yet) no compensation for those living in Iitate village who have been advised to evacuate due to contamination, beyond the 30km limit, nor for farmers, fishermen, employers or employees who have been affected by radioactive contamination affecting their livelihoods. The total cost to TEPCO should be less than \50 billion. TEPCO pre-tax profits have regularly fallen within the \200-400billion range.

It was moist, but not at all stodgy. While I am not an icing fan, the topping on that cake was fabulous. Helped by the pecans, but how is that pronounced. Pee-can. Or Pi-CAN? We probably need to consult the person in charge. PM Kan?

 

Comments

[Alan McCornick]

Just read somewhere that only half of Tokyo's voters in their twenties went to the polls. While your claim that Ishihara was elected by the most informed of Tokyo's voters may be valid, the other side of the coin is that half the population, and especially the young, simply find their government irrelevant, looks like. Somebody needs to point out that government cannot be simultaneously incompetent and irrelevant.